Hamas and its supporters are claiming victory. Who says that they are wrong?
I have mentioned previously the Telegram account of one who goes by the handle Abu Ali Express. His Hebrew-language account has over 520,000 subscribers. The owner of the account clearly is a former intelligence officer. He is fluent in English, Hebrew and Arabic. He routinely scans Arabic postings from around the Middle East in order to get a feel of how things are going and also how things are perceived. I am adding below a recent posting of his. I think that it is important (emphasis added).
"The struggle for the victory narrative: Hamas media working diligently since the announcement to promote the issue. Regardless of the facts, the wind in the tents in Gaza, the extent of the destruction, Hamas's well-oiled propaganda machine began, within the first minute after the ceasefire was announced, to promote Hamas' narrative of victory. They understand the importance of shaping public opinion from the very first second (as in many cases in the conflict with Israel over decades). They quote Secretary of State Blinken from yesterday: Hamas cannot be defeated by military force. They use all the statements in the Israeli media that say Israel lost. While Israel is punishing itself (as usual), Hamas is flourishing on the narrative-shaping field, succeeding over time. Beyond their permanent audience, there are many people around the world, opponents of Israel, who enjoy having it "explained" to them how Israel lost (despite the reality) - fertile ground for establishing the narrative of Hamas' victory.”
One may say that what Hamas and the Palestinians think is irrelevant. The pictures from Gaza and the supposed 46,000 dead and 110,000 injured are proof that Hamas is definitely not winning. One has to recall that after World War I, there were many people in Germany—including Adolf Hitler and his followers—who believed that Germany had been “stabbed in the back.” Their claim was based on German forces still being in France and appearing to be in a winning position. The reality was that Germany could no longer provide food or weaponry to its troops. Additionally, anarchy was breaking out through strikes and anti-government protests. So the reality was that Germany could no longer fight; the perceived reality was that Germany could have gone on to victory, and she was stabbed in the back by Jews and others who brought her defeat. This stabbed-in-the-back narrative was critical to Hitler’s appeal and his program against German Jews.
The fact that the Palestinians are declaring victory while reaction in Israel is muted is no small thing. In Israel, many are opposed to the deal that has been publicly announced. Even the ones who are happy about hostages being released do not know the condition of the hostages, and there is no plan now for the repatriation of the more than 60 not covered by the first phase of the deal. By claiming victory, Hamas is helping itself recruit replacements for its 20,000 dead fighters. It also is raising its position over the ashes of Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria, and even wounded Iran. One might say that it is ridiculous for an organization that has lost most of its territory and fighters to claim that it is winning. But imagine a boxing match. The reigning champ needs to knock out his opponent to win; the other guy only has to be on his feet at the end of the 15th round in order to get paid. Different goals means different outlooks. When Israel went to war, it promised to kill all 6,000 people who entered its south on October 7. And while it has probably killed a majority of them, those in Israeli jails have little to fear as Israel has not used its death penalty since it executed Adolph Eichmann in 1962. It said that it would kill Sinwar, and I was happy when they did—because if he had made it to today, Israel would have looked worse than it already does. It claimed that it would destroy Hamas, and Tony Blinken conveniently said that Hamas could not be destroyed.
Hamas fighters came out of their holes in full military gear yesterday. Fireworks went off in Gaza and elsewhere. After the brutal and unprovoked murder of 1,200 people, Israel needs a clear and unequivocal win. This agreement is not that.
One has to always remember that Palestinians live in an alternative universe. Those here and in the West believe that there was a country called Palestine that the evil Zionists conquered and took away. All of the history lessons of Ottomans to British to Israelis never makes them join the reality of a country that never existed. So people who are already deluded can easily be convinced that the smoking heap of destruction of Gaza is a sign of victory. And it has implications both here and abroad. Those in the West who receive monies from Islamic countries will turn this “victory” into more aggressive protests and threats of turning the West Sharia. Here, Hamas’ “success” has already been translated into their threats to do October 7th again and go up to Jerusalem. The only way you can get an enemy to make peace is to totally destroy him and disabuse him of his fantasies. The Japanese were ready to defend the home islands with millions of civilians until the emperor told them that the war was over. Then they became compliant with the American forces that ruled after the war.
For Hamas and the Palestinians, any outcome that still has them around is considered victory. And they will use that “victory” to recruit, fundraise, and receive more weapons from Iran. The published plan has Israel leaving the Philadelphi Corridor 50 days after implementation of the deal. I don’t know what they are thinking. All of the weapons and raw materials for rockets came through the Rafah crossings. They really want more rockets and another big attack? My guess is that they expect the ceasefire to collapse quickly through Hamas’ not following the agreement. That’s what happened last time that there was a ceasefire.
Giving the appearance of victory to your enemy is dangerous. Hamas will take credit and pride in the release of murderers from Israeli jails. Its position will grow stronger, drowning out any other alternative that might be cobbled together as something other than the death cult. Israelis, like the Germans, will conclude that they lost and that their leaders misled them. I can’t say how the soldiers will feel. Every soldier wants to get home. But I imagine that every soldier does not want to see his hard-won effort given away for nothing. Israel is giving up territory in the middle of Gaza. Every soldier will wonder if it was worth the effort and losses in order to take it in the first place. If their sacrifice brings peace, then it was worth it. But if—like Khe Sanh in Vietnam—the blood-soaked land is quickly abandoned to the enemy, then why did we go to war in the first place?
Israel needs a big “W” in Gaza; anything less will lead to a lot of soul-searching.