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OPINION

Forecasts for the Weeks of March 23 and 30

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.





Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus


Week of March 23





March 23





Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.15

0.13

0.15


Existing Home Sales - February

5.010M

4.820

4.940







March 24





Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

-0.3

0.2


CPI Core

0.1

0.1

0.1







FHFA Housing Price Index - January=

0.5%

0.8

0.5


PMI Flash Manufacturing Index

55.1

55.1

54.7


New Home Sales - February

470K

480K

462


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.5

0

2







March 25





Durable Good Orders - February

0.8%

2.8

0.7







March 26





Initial Unemployment Claims

300K

291

293


PMI Services Flash Index

57.1

57.1

57.0


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-0.5

1

0.00







March 27





GDP - Q4 (f)

2.3%

2.2

=A0


GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.1

0.1

0.1







Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

92.2

91.2

92







Week of March 30<= /p>





March 30





Personal Income - February

0.3%

0.3

0.3


Personal Spending

0.3

-0.2

0.2







Pending Home Sales Index - March

104.3

104.2



Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.6

-11.2








March 31





Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.1



Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

0.9



Twenty City Y/Y

4.6

4.5

4.6







Chicago PMI - March

52.5

45.8

51.0


Consumer Confidence Index - March<= /p>

96.4

96.4

96.0







April 1





ADP Employment Report - March

230K

212

240







ISM (Mfg) - March

53.0

52.9

52.5


ISM Prices

35.0

35.0








Construction Spending - February

0.5%

-1.1








Auto Sales* - March

16.46M

16.23

16.7


Car Sales

7.33

7.23



Truck Sales

9.01

9.01



*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence










April 2





International Trade - February

-$42.8B

-41.8

-41.2







April 3





Nonfarm Payrolls - March

250K

295

248


Private

240

288

240


Manufacturing

11

8

13


Unemployment

5.5%

5.5

5.5


Average Workweek

34.6Hr

34.6

34.6


Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.2







ISM Services - March

56.9

56.9

56.6


ISM Prices

49.7

49.7



ISM Business Activity

59.4

59.4








Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist a= t the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

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