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OPINION

Forecasts for the Weeks of February 9 and 16

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January 100.8 100.4 101.0
JOLTS - December 4.98 4.972 4.975
Wholesale Inventories - December 0.1% 0.8 0.1
Wholesale Sales -0.3
February 11
Treasury Budget - January -$18.2B 1.9 -18.5
February 12
Initial Unemployment Claims 285K 278 288
Retail Sales - January -0.5% -0.9 -0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos 5 -1.0 -0.5
Business Inventories - December 0.2% 0.2 0.2
February 13
Export Prices - February -0.8% -1.2 -0.8
Import Prices -3.3 -2.5 -3.00
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) 98.4 98.1 98.5
Week of February 16
February 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 9.0 9.95 8.0
February 17
NAHB Index - February 58 57 58
February 18
Producer Price Index - January -0.4% -0.3 -0.4
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Housing Starts - January 1.060M 1.080 1.070
Building Permits 1.060 1.032 1.060
Industrial Production - January 0.3% -0.1 0.4
Capacity Utilization 79.9 79.7 79.9
Manufacturing Output 0.3 0.3 0.3
February 19
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 53.4 53.9
Philadelphia Fed Survey 9 6.3 8.5
Leading Indicators - January 0.3% 0.6 0.4
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.
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