Forecast For Economic Numbers Week of June 30th, 2014

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 30

June 30

Pending Home Sale Index - May

99.2

97.8

98.7

Chicago PMI - June

64.0

65.5

64.0

July 1

Auto Sales* - June

16.46M

16.77

16.40

Car Sales

7.87

8.04

Truck Sales

8.59

8.73

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

57.5

57.5

57.0

ISM (Mfg) - June

56.2

55.4

55.6

ISM Prices

60.5

60.0

Construction Spending - May

0.4%

0.2

0.5

July 2

ADP Employment Report - July

215

179

213

Factory Orders - May

-0.2%

0.7

-0.3

Durable Goods Orders

-1.0

0.6

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.7

July 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

220K

217

217

Private

220

216

216

Core Private*

185

147

Manufacturing

10

10

Unemployment

6.3%

6.3

6.3

Average Workweek

34.5Hr

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - May

-$44.7B

-47.2

-45.1

Initial Jobless Claims

312

312

314

ISM Services - June

56.2

56.3

56.2

ISM Prices

61.4

61.4

ISM Business Activity

62.1

62.1

Week of July 7

July 8

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June

96.6

JOLTS - May

4.455

Consumer Credit - May

$18.0

26.8

20.6

July 10

Initial Unemployment Claims

Wholesale Inventories - May

0.6%

1.1

0.8

Wholesale Sales

July 11

Treasury Budget - June

$100.0B

-131.0

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.