The Commerce Department's recently revised survey of the U.S. economy in the second quarter stunned “expert” economists, who are getting used to being surprised these days. The survey showed a higher than previously reported GDP growth rate of 3.3 percent. For those who aren't experts, imagine a depression, and then imagine the opposite of that. Now you understand what a 3.3 percent growth rate is.
But there's more! The “personal consumption expenditures index” marginally increased by 2 percent on an annualized basis, and core prices by only 2.5 percent. And this is in the very quarter when the economic and market turbulence caused by Trump's tariffs peaked.
We all remember the dark period in early April when the announcement of Trump's “reciprocal” tariffs caused the major stock markets to swoon by around 10 percent. Trump advised patience, however, and the tariff regime was quickly paused and gradually revised as negotiations with various trading partners produced positive results. Within a week, the markets were recovering, and by early May the S&P 500 had fully recouped its considerable losses. From the end of June onward, the major markets hit all-time highs on a regular basis, and their upward trajectory continues to this day.
It's worth reflecting on how apoplectic and apocalyptic the financial experts and the mainstream media were back when tariff uncertainty was at its height. CNBC talked of stocks “plummeting” and “tumbl[ing]” as it raised fears of a recession. It also quoted an analyst who described Trump's tariffs as “worse than the worst case scenario,” and another who declared “The bull market is dead, and it was destroyed by ideologues and self-inflicted wounds.” The Wall Street Journal spoke of a “wipeout” on Wall Street. Bloomberg's headline was: “This Is Madness.” CNN observed that the “R-word is seemingly everywhere.” NBC highlighted a JPMorgan analysis entitled “There will be blood,” while it quoted another analyst who foresaw “economic Armageddon” and said, in reaction to Trump's tariffs, “Never have we...seen a self-inflicted debacle of epic proportions [like this].” CBS quoted an analyst who foresaw “serious recessions” ahead, and predicted higher inflation, lower growth, and even a “self-inflicted economic catastrophe.” The Hill reveled in Jim Cramer's comparison of the April stock declines to the massive contraction on “Black Monday” in 1987. The AP highlighted a claim that Trump's tariffs were “a full-throttle macro disruption,” and it darkly observed that “Vladimir Putin’s Russia, meanwhile, was left off Trump’s [tariff] list,” conveniently forgetting that severe sanctions and embargoes had essentially eliminated bilateral trade with Russia. The AP also speculated that a bond sell-off meant that “confidence in America is fading.” The Telegraph crowed that it was Trump's fear of “economic nuclear winter,” induced by a collapse in the value of U.S. government bonds, that forced him to undertake a tariff pause.
Democrats were, if anything, even blunter. California Senator Adam Schiff declared that “[Trump is] going to tank the economy.” Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy spun a conspiracy theory that Trump's tariffs were intentionally destructive: “It's not economic policy, it's not trade policy. It's an attempt to purposely destroy the economy in order for him to cut deals, industry by industry...” Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader in the House of Representatives, echoed Murphy: “...the only conclusion that one can draw is that Donald Trump and the Republicans are intentionally tanking the economy... Is it because, as Donald Trump has indicated, that during tough economic times the rich get richer, and it’s a buying opportunity?” Jeffries reiterated: “There’s no rational basis otherwise to explain the economic carnage that Donald Trump is visiting on the American people.” Democrats were asking the American people to believe that Trump wanted America to fail so that he and his buddies could get richer! The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, exulted in the doomsaying of economic “experts,” declines in consumer confidence, and polls showing that Americans rejected Trump's “reckless and chaotic” trade policies.
Not for nothing did President Trump coin the term “panicans” to describe those who gave in to extreme pessimism in response to his tariffs. This was and remains, though, part of a broader trend: leftists reliably and constantly predict that Trump will DESTROY America and everything good in it and about it. The objective reality, however, at least economically, is that America is doing just fine. Inflation is low, growth is high, tariff revenues are up, and dependence on foreign imports is down. If a Democrat had accumulated a record like this, progressives would be thrilled, but, because Trump is in the driver's seat, they close their eyes to his economic victories, and they nod knowingly and approvingly at every pessimistic media report, no matter how fanciful it may be.
The miracle is that the market has thrived, despite the fact that so many investors are themselves afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome. Democrats are more educated and affluent than ever before, after all – so much so that some now call the Democratic Party the “party of the rich.” Luckily, these wealthy progressives seem to know better than to pull their assets from the market, even as their favorite pundits assure them that the sky is falling. This fact is a testament to the strength of America's economic fundamentals, to Trump's persistence and savvy, and perhaps also to the declining influence and relevance of the media itself.
Long may it last! The Trump boom may never satisfy liberals, but it sure is making many Americans, of all political stripes, rich.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an adjunct professor of history at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears on the Newsmakers show on WLEA/WYSL.
Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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