Why I’m Still Not Buying the Blue Tsunami

Before the results come in, I want to explain why I’ve resisted the predictions of a blue wave, much less a blue tsunami.

My prediction: Republicans hold the Senate. Democrats likely take the House, but their best outcome is a single-digit advantage over Republicans.

I’m a conservative. I’d prefer Republicans keep both chambers. If I were trying to peddle false hope to people who want to believe Republicans will win, predicting a Democratic House would be a strange way to do it.

My audience deserves my honest assessment. That includes conclusions they might not enjoy hearing. I’ve reached this one by putting considerable weight on the electoral map, historical voting patterns and the individual races Democrats actually have to win.

Start with the House. A national polling advantage doesn’t distribute itself evenly across 435 congressional districts. Democrats can increase their margins in overwhelmingly Democratic districts without electing one additional member. Where their voters live matters. District boundaries and redistricting affect how many seats they can realistically capture.

When I look at that map, I see a path to a Democrat majority. I’m considerably less persuaded by the path to a landslide.

The Senate requires its own analysis. Some of the Democratic breakthroughs being forecast would require substantial shifts in states with established Republican voting patterns.

I want convincing evidence of what has changed in those states. Who is switching sides? Which voters are staying home? What turnout assumptions produce the projected result? The larger the departure from recent voting history, the more closely those questions deserve examination.

Then there are the polls.

In three consecutive presidential elections, polling underestimated Republican support relative to Democratic support. Polls performed considerably better in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. That belongs in the discussion, and I take it seriously.

But the misses belong in the discussion too. When a poll suggests a dramatic Democratic breakthrough in Republican territory, the recent record gives me reason to examine it carefully before accepting it.

Several polls showing similar results strengthen the case. They don’t settle it. Pollsters can struggle to reach the same kinds of voters or make similar assumptions about turnout. Averaging their results doesn’t necessarily correct a problem they share.

I also have great respect for plenty of commentators on the right who see this election differently. But a conservative résumé doesn’t make anyone’s forecast infallible.

Some of those voices have repeatedly underestimated Trump’s political strength and the voters he brings into the Republican coalition. In my view, their longstanding skepticism of his political abilities has sometimes carried too much weight in their election analysis. I listen to their arguments, but I also consider that history when deciding how much confidence to place in their conclusions.

The same scrutiny should apply to the people selling Democrats a landslide.

If we’re going to question whether conservative commentators are feeding their audience false hope, we ought to ask whether liberal audiences are being sold an appealing forecast too. Predicting a Democratic rout can be just as gratifying to an audience, and just as useful for attracting attention, as predicting a Republican victory.

And when predictions of Democratic dominance are paired with suggestions that Republicans are rigging the election, the implications deserve serious attention. It becomes awfully easy for an audience to conclude that anything short of the promised wave must be evidence that something was stolen.

A disappointing result cannot establish that an election was rigged. Allegations of misconduct require evidence. A forecast that failed to materialize supplies none.

People deserve to hear a credible explanation for how Republicans could outperform expectations before the votes are counted. Otherwise, an entirely plausible result can arrive looking inexplicable to an audience that was encouraged to expect something else.

I understand the historical case for Democratic gains. The president’s party usually loses House seats in midterms. That’s one reason I expect Democrats to take the chamber.

The disagreement is over the size of those gains and whether they extend far enough into Republican territory to deliver the Senate too.

I’ve weighed the evidence, and I expect a closer outcome than the wave coverage suggests. I’m putting that judgment on the record before we know the results, along with my reasoning.

If tonight brings a blue tsunami, I’ll explain what I missed.

If it brings a narrow Democratic House and a Republican Senate, I hope the people who treated a wave as obvious will examine their own assumptions before blaming the election.

Whatever happens tonight, thank God we live in a constitutional republic where we choose our representatives through democratic elections. For 250 years, the American experiment in self-government has given people around the world reason to look to this country as that shining city on a hill. We have an obligation to preserve it and pass it on. As Franklin’s famous challenge reminds us, we have a republic, if we can keep it.

If Republicans pull off what some would consider a miracle and keep both chambers, we should celebrate an affirmation of the work we’ve done and the faith we’ve placed in our country and our values. Then we should insist that the people we elected deliver.

If we get the split decision I expect, we’ll turn immediately to the next fight. We’ll defend what we’ve accomplished, work to persuade more Americans and organize to win next time.

And if that blue tsunami does emerge, we won’t have much time to feel depressed or lick our wounds. We’ll have work to do immediately, opposing the radical policies Democrats want to impose and making the case for a better direction.

Whatever the outcome, our responsibility to this country continues tomorrow morning.

Get out and vote. Pray to our Lord. And remember how blessed we are to be Americans.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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