Trump has been saying that a deal with Iran is close for weeks. This week, the Islamic Republic fired barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel. Those two facts are not unrelated.
One hundred days into any new presidency is the accepted measure of when the grace period ends and real scrutiny begins. Many leaders use the milestone to tout their achievements. The grace period, though, became largely irrelevant long ago. Political leaders are judged from day one by what they do and what they don’t do. It’s a bit like the ceasefires between which Israel has been living for the past hundred days and more: officially there is supposed to be a “cease,” but in reality the “fire” persists.
Since barrages of missiles were fired at Israel on Sunday night and again Monday morning, from the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, some things have become clearer and some less so. One thing is certain: this situation is unsustainable and cannot be left to continue.
Things I know:
• The clearest things in a murky situation remain true: the Islamic Republic is nefarious, evil, and cannot be trusted.
• The Islamic Republic attacked because they know Trump is ranting about a “deal” that he has been calling imminent for months.
• They attacked because even the talk of a possible peace deal between Israel and Lebanon threatened their proxy Hezbollah, and terrorists always use terror to influence from the outside. Particularly during a ceasefire or on the cusp of any political or diplomatic achievement.
• They attacked because they successfully linked themselves and any deal with the U.S. to Hezbollah in Lebanon. When Israel struck Hezbollah positions near Beirut, Iran used it as a pretext, knowing Trump would stop Israel from responding massively.
• They attacked because they know Trump wants a deal more than they are prepared to make one. They called his bluff.
• Trump’s own words about a deal have been the fuel for the missiles they fired. They want no deal. They want to play Trump.
• There can be no deal with the Islamic Republic and its proxies. In real estate deals with which Trump is familiar, one party pays, and the other sells. With the Islamic Republic, any deal now means paying later, and later again.
• If there is a deal, the Islamic Republic will play along until it suits them not to. They have 47 years of practice at this.
• Israel did retaliate, striking Iranian sites Monday morning. This may give Israel some face-saving cover while respecting the alliance with the United States. It does not make sense to cross the president unless absolutely necessary.
• The Islamic Republic is not an ally. It is a dangerous enemy that seeks the destruction of the United States. Any deal with it is itself suicidal.
When Harry Met Sally and Trump and the Ayatollahs
Picture Trump in the role of Sally (Meg Ryan) in the movie “When Harry Met Sally” at the deli. His performance, faking it, drawing looks from every table in the room. “We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It’s going to be a good deal. I don’t want to blow it up because of what is happening now.” While she’s faking it, Harry (Billy Crystal), the other patrons, and the rest of the world look on in disbelief.
The Islamic Republic saw his hand and played him. They know he is more eager for a deal than he is for actually defeating them. They know they can continue to play him before and after any deal, if there ever is one.
It seems clear that in a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump insisted Israel not respond to Sunday’s barrage on the grounds that “the Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody” and “if Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep going like the past 47 years.” Trump likely saw the exchange as a draw. Each side had its strike. Move on.
Unlike President Biden, who said “Don’t, don’t” to Iran in 2023, Trump this week essentially said “Don’t” to Israel. The difference is instructive. Biden was trying to deter the attacker. Trump was restraining the attacked.
The Deal That Cannot Exist
Anti-Israel agitators have spent the past hundred days insisting that Israel somehow controls Trump and U.S. policy. The latest escalation and the tying of Israel’s hands have made clear that the opposite is true. Trump has tied Israel’s hands, not the other way around.
Trump commented this week that a deal “would be signed on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday.” The Iranians see it as crying wolf. And they are suiting up in their wolf clothes, ready to use his eagerness as a moment to pounce.
They have done this before. The Strait of Hormuz. The nuclear enrichment timeline. The proxy escalation cycle. Forty-seven years of perfecting the same play, which is to appear to negotiate and deny its nuclear ambitions while advancing the underlying agenda. A deal does not end that cycle. It funds it and extends it.
Nearly 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during the current ceasefire with Hezbollah. The “cease” in ceasefire is, as it has consistently been, a word the other side does not feel bound by.
To the Islamic Republic and to U.S. allies in the region trying to read what Trump is doing, one thing now appears certain: he seems desperate to end the war even without achieving the declared goals that launched it, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons program, neutralizing its ballistic missile capabilities, and severing its support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
One hundred days in, with Israel under fire again and the Islamists clearly playing their hand while Trump talks deal, the conclusion writes itself.
It is time to finish the job and win. Not to talk and talk about a deal that the other side has already decided they will never honor.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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