President Trump’s recent Middle East tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, has sparked a complex mix of optimism and apprehension, particularly regarding its implications for Israel. In a recent conversation on the “Inspiration from Zion” podcast, military and political analyst Major Elliot Chodoff and public diplomacy expert Barry Shaw dissected the visit, highlighting both its economic successes and the strategic concerns it raises for Israel and its conservative supporters. The discussion covered the multifaceted dynamics of Trump’s engagements, releasing the hostages, and broader geopolitical ripple effects.
Trump’s visit yielded significant economic benefits for the United States, a point both experts acknowledged. These deals, including a $142 billion military package with Saudi Arabia, underscore a financial windfall, boosting American industry and jobs. Shaw framed this as a positive, noting Trump’s ability to secure such agreements that position the U.S. favorably on the balance sheet.
Chodoff echoed this stating, “Trump and the United States are coming out ahead on the balance sheet, if you count it in millions and billions of dollars.” He also highlighted a humanitarian win: the release of Eden Alexander, the final living American-Israeli hostage. “Getting him out, and certainly at no direct cost to Israel… was certainly a positive aspect,” though he cautioned about unknown behind-the-scenes promises. Additionally, Trump’s emphasis on the Abraham Accords during meetings with Saudi leadership and Syria’s new leader, known as Julani, or Al-Golani, was seen as a nod to Israel’s inclusion in regional dynamics. Chodoff argued, “Israel is still in the mix there and in the positive end of the mix,” countering suggestions of its abandonment.
Despite these positives, both experts expressed deep concerns, particularly about Qatar’s role and its implications for Israel. Shaw was blunt, “Qatar is deeply, deeply troubling to people who care… because, apart from Qatar being the main sponsor of Hamas, and as well as Al Qaeda, (it has) Al Jazeera and all these anti-Western, not only anti-Israel, organizations.” He pointed to Qatar’s financial influence, describing it as a “Trojan horse” entering through Trump’s deals. “Trump is opening the gates of Troy,” Shaw warned, noting a condition on the U.S. military base in Qatar that “the United States cannot use that base to defend Israel.” This restriction, mirrored in Turkey, underscores Qatar’s undue influence in American interests.
Shaw also critiqued the optics of the hostage release. “The timing of Edan Alexander’s release was orchestrated to be a wedge between Israel and America, and it was orchestrated between one of the negotiators, Qatar, and, in fact, with Hamas.” He argued this move, coupled with a pause in the Gaza war, primarily benefits Hamas. Furthermore, Shaw raised alarms about Qatar’s influence in the U.S., noting, “Qatar… has an aggressive multi-billion-dollar campaign to control U.S. institutions, posing a direct threat to American national security,” particularly through funding anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiments on campuses.
Chodoff shared similar apprehensions, focusing on the broader ideological threat. “Qatar is a Wahhabist center,” he explained, linking it to radical Islam’s core, including the Moslem Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, and ISIS. He cautioned, “They have an American base in Qatar and (are) funding Al Qaeda and anti-American movements all around the world. This is extremely dangerous, especially when you think of the Abraham Accords.” Chodoff also highlighted the Houthi situation, noting the U.S. ceasefire failed to protect Israel. “The Houthis had the audacity to fire their ballistic missiles… aiming towards Israel,” he said, contrasting Israel’s targeted, effective strikes with America’s less decisive month-long campaign.
The discussion also touched on Iran and Syria, amplifying concerns for Israel. Chodoff was skeptical of U.S. negotiations with Iran, stating, “Until it’s closed, there’s no such thing as close,” and warning of Iran’s tactic to delay, and demand more at the last moment. Shaw echoed this, questioning whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) warned Trump against Iran’s “false promises.”
“The Iranians are the best barters in the world… and it’s that danger that they’re going to do the same on Trump,” Shaw said, hoping MBS urged a firm deadline with Iran as the Iranian threat is existential to Saudi Arabia.
Recognizing Syria’s new leadership under Julani/Al-Golani, a former Al Qaeda leader, raised further red flags. Shaw dismissed superficial changes, saying, “Is this guy reformed because he’s wearing a suit and tie? Don’t believe it… until I hear it out of Al-Golani’s mouth and not out of President Trump’s, I’m not going to believe anything.” Chodoff was even more cautious, stating, “I wouldn’t believe it even after I hear it from his mouth,” also warning of Turkey’s Erdogan potentially using Julani/Al-Golani to revive Ottoman ambitions, posing a proxy threat to Israel.
The failure to expand the Abraham Accords was a sore point. Shaw noted, “Trump went all the way to the Middle East, and one of the prizes he wanted… was to bring Saudi Arabia aboard the Abraham Accords. He failed on that.” Chodoff also observed the lack of consequences for Saudi Arabia’s refusal to do so.
Both grappled with Israel’s precarious position. Shaw suggested, “He’s put Israel in the backseat of the bus,” and predicted Israel might “come off the bus” regarding Gaza and Iran if negotiations falter. Chodoff agreed, emphasizing the danger of perception. “The perception that America is either abandoning, or back-of-the-busing Israel, is dangerous in its own right.” He cited historical examples where perceived U.S. disengagement emboldened attacks, a risk heightened by Trump’s trip.
Trump’s Middle East tour brought economic wins and a hostage release, but for Israel, the concerns loom large. Qatar’s influence, the Houthi threat, Iran negotiations, and Syria’s uncertain leadership under Turkey’s shadow all challenge Israel’s security. The failure to advance the Abraham Accords with big deals being made but no requirement to formalize peace further underscores Israel’s delicate position. As Shaw and Chodoff warn, while Trump’s intentions may not signal abandonment, the strategic and perceptual risks leave Israel cautiously watching from the side, hoping for stronger U.S. support in the face of regional threats.
With all these concerns, the Genesis 123 Foundation will be hosting an Urgent Global Prayer for Israel on June 7 at 2:00 pm Eastern time.
Author's Note: With all these concerns, the Genesis 123 Foundation will be hosting an Urgent Global Prayer for Israel on June 7 at 2:00 pm Eastern time.
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