An Ounce of Prevention Beats a Pound of Lawsuits

I coached youth sports for more than a decade, and it taught me that scoreboards are neutral ledgers about who was better on any given day. The referees are tasked with making sure both sides play fair. Frustration kicks in when even the people in the bleachers can see them ignore cheating during the game.

Election officials keep telling us not to believe our own eyes. The media tells us noncitizen voting is extremely rare, yet new charges now surface in different states almost every week. On Oct. 19, officials said the Justice Department had charged 113 noncitizens across 20 states in seven weeks, and a week later it announced charges involving 48 people in five states. Charges are allegations, and the numbers remain relatively small against a national electorate. Rare still isn't absent. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and the evidence shows where to spend the ounce.

New Jersey shows what skipping prevention costs. In July, Democrat Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced that a Motor Vehicle Commission software error had registered about 6,600 people who answered “no” when a keypad asked whether they were citizens. The state later said about 340 of them voted and removed roughly 5,100 registrations. Sherrill said she had no evidence any election was swayed. The vendor, IDEMIA, says its system recorded the “no” answers, so the state held that information all along. The glitch was fixed in June 2024, and the public heard nothing for two years. The cleanup still leaks. NJ.com reported that a Manalapan green card holder who applied for a license in September 2024 landed on the rolls and came off only after her family complained.

California has a long history here, too. In 2018, its DMV said about 1,500 customers may have been registered in error, and the Associated Press reported the group included at least one noncitizen and perhaps many more. Secretary of State Alex Padilla noted that not all 1,500 were noncitizens. A clerical slip still puts an ineligible name on a roll as efficiently as a conspiracy does, and every one of these stories stars an official who is shocked, shocked to find a problem, like Captain Renault at Rick's.

California’s response began with a refusal. Los Angeles County officials declined to open a thumb drive from the Justice Department over security concerns, and DOJ emailed a spreadsheet the next day. Secretary of State Shirley Weber wrote that she wouldn’t remove the roughly 20,000 flagged registrants or set their ballots aside, and DOJ’s lawsuit accuses California of failing to review the list. The county did look, though. A preliminary sample of 200 names found that among those whose birthplace was recorded, 38.9 percent listed the United States, which a county official called strong evidence of citizenship. DOJ’s Trent McCotter conceded that “there may be some names on there who it turns out ultimately are citizens.” DOJ calls these people “likely” noncitizens, and a flag proves nothing alone. A federal judge denied the emergency request on Oct. 28, and on Oct. 30 a 9th Circuit panel rejected the latest bid, 2-1. California still owes voters an account of what its review found. A routine records check settles these fights faster than a lawsuit.

Where officials look, they find. Ohio's 2024 audit referred 597 apparent noncitizens, and 138 appear to have voted among more than 8 million registrants. Georgia's Republican secretary of state found 20 noncitizens among 8.2 million registrants, and nine had voted. Most of those nine voted before Georgia began checking citizenship through driver's license records in 2012. That suggests a front-door check works. The state found the 20 because they told a court they weren't citizens to dodge jury duty, which makes the jury summons its most effective audit.

Registration is one door. Ballot custody is another. In North Carolina's 9th District in 2018, investigators described a paid, coordinated scheme to collect absentee ballots, run by an operative who worked for Republican Mark Harris's campaign. Harris led by 905 votes. The elections board unanimously ordered a new election, and four people later pleaded guilty to misdemeanors. I'd say the same about a Democrat operative. The rules should bind everyone.

The skeptics deserve their due. Ohio's Republican attorney general, Dave Yost, conceded “very small numbers” of noncitizens have voted in his state. A database flag proves nothing alone. Texas flagged 2,724 registrants after running 18 million names through the federal SAVE system, then gave each person 30 days to prove citizenship, since SAVE data can be incomplete. I'd call that process the model. A flag opens a review, and a conviction takes a court. 

Prevention costs less than the cure, and it's available now. Run registrations through SAVE, which DHS opened to states at no cost. Program DMV systems to stop when an applicant says no and hire an outside auditor to test them every quarter. Schedule the big audits for winter because federal law requires systematic removal programs to finish 90 days before a federal election. Tighten ballot custody the way North Carolina does, where it's generally illegal for anyone but the voter or a family member to handle a completed ballot.

Reagan borrowed a Russian proverb, “trust, but verify,” for arms control, and it works on a voter roll too. My three sons will inherit whatever scoreboard we leave them. This week, call your county registrar and ask what happens when an applicant says they aren't a citizen. The answer will tell you whether your county bought the ounce or is saving up for the pound.

Jay Rogers is a financial professional with more than 30 years of experience in private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and wealth management. He writes about issues in finance, constitutional law, national security, human nature, and public policy.

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