It was a tough start to the New Year, and now the market has to find its footing before people really get nervous.
Looking back at the jobs report, the market has a bigger issue than an overdue correction. However, for me, wages must improve soon if there is going to be a virtuous cycle and if America is to withstand the current fate of its trading partners. Sure, more jobs mean more money flowing into the economy, just as cheap gas could see money spent beyond the local gas station, but for real velocity, wages have to increase.
The good news for those worried about the Fed hiking rates- it's not going to happen with punk wages, Europe being on the cusp of a deflationary collapse, and China struggling. Plus, the housing market must finally see a Main Street-led recovery... in other words, a real recovery. However, in the end, I am not concerned about the Fed; it is about earnings driven by organic demand, pricing power, and market expansion.
For now, the most important thing is not to panic... In fact, I like the action in some beaten down small-cap technology names last week, and even though what has happened in financials and discretionary stocks is odd, there was still a lot of good news.
Overall, I feel good about valuations and although I still see a big upside move in 2015, this could be a rougher ride than in 2014.
Today’s Session
Equity futures have been drifting all morning, although they point to an upbeat start to the session. All the big news is in biotech with a number of deals including:
- $5.2 billion bid for NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) from Shire plc (SHPG)
- $2.5 billion bid for MWI Vetinary Supply (MWIV) from AmerisourceBergen (ABC)
- Roche (RHHBY) agreeing to acquire a 56.3% stake in Foundation Medicine (FMI)
- Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) and OnCore Biorpharma merging to create a global Hepatitis B Company
On a different note, oil is collapsing again as Goldman lowers its 2015 and 2016 targets and Prince Alwaleed tells Maria Bartiromo crude will never see $100 again. I’m filling in for Maria on Opening Bell this morning Fox Business and will be discussing this in more detail.
It will be interesting to see if stocks can rally with oil breaking key support or the deflationary aspect of the story becomes even more problematic.
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