Election 2026: never has a midterm year been so important, so seminal, with so much riding on its outcome.
President Trump has unleashed one of the most consequential presidencies in American History. He has resisted the moderation of previous leaders, enacting a bold, aggressive agenda, recognizing the unique opportunities of a second-term president who can enact aggressive policy change, with the considerable support from the people.
He has nothing to lose, much to gain.
And yet, our republican fundamentals have not changed—for the better, by the way—and therefore, President Trump depends on the support of an effective Congress willing to codify his order, vision, and agenda.
The One Big Beautiful Bill got much of the work done, at least for the short term. The border patrol apparatus has the funding to enforce our immigration laws. The wall is getting built. The tax code is more generous to the working man, and conservatives in blue states will enjoy a greater financial reprieve from the IRS Tax man, while at the same time the red states will not have to pick up the slack for the over-taxing blue states.
But where is the legislation to reform legal immigration? What about the laws to protect children from all kinds of abuse and indoctrination in the public schools? Congress has to codify the collapse of the Department of Education, as well. Until Congress officially pulls the plug, the next president (God forbid, a liberal, progressive, or communist) can reinstate the Department of Education and engage in a rushed rehiring of all the bureaucratic largess.
If Congress doesn’t put Trump’s orders, actions, and pronouncements into law, this will get wiped away with the stroke of a pen by the next administration. So, the future of MAGA rests on Congress. Will there be a friendly GOP-majority House to keep supporting the president, or will Democrats take over and engage on a revenge tour of subpoenas, impeachment hearings, and fiscal anarchy to frustrate the remaining two years of Trump 2.0?
History suggests that the in-power Republicans will face a backlash, if not a wipeout, from the voters in the midterms. They lost 40 seats in 2018, and the party that holds the White House consistently loses seats in the midterms. It’s the nature of two-party majority politics, I suppose.
Let’s look at the most recent election that resisted that trend: 2002. President George W. Bush was riding an incredible wave of popular sentiment. He had taken a strong, resolute stance against Islamic terror. The country had never been more united after 9/11. Bush convinced the public that the Republican Party had the courage and wisdom to lead the country in dealing with terrorism and promoting public safety. The Democratic Party gave off, then as now, that they were soft on crime, hard on the law-abiding, and didn’t care what was best for the country.
Can Trump replicate those trends to propel the GOP to another record-shattering win for the midterms? It all depends on the following factors:
- Economy: The One Big Beautiful Bill must bring a big, beautiful boon. If the cuts and grants work in the general public’s favor, and they find that they are taking home more pay, voters will see that the Republicans have kept their promises to turn the economy around. Trump has at least four months ahead of him, including the upcoming tax season with the Big Beautiful tax reforms, to show the voters that he has their back economically. Let’s hope the affordability problems dissipate quickly.
- Housing: If housing costs decline, if the Fed lowers interest rates, and if Congress can get some of the spending under control, then the inflation problems will deflate. If middle-income and entry level workers find that finding a place to rent—or own—is not as difficult as four years ago, Trump and Republicans can take credit and campaign on this win.
- Immigration: The president needs to deport as many illegal aliens as he can between now and November. The drastic reduction of human demand on goods and services will continue driving down costs, provide higher-paying jobs, and decrease crime and corruption throughout the country. This policy is a win-win-win, and Trump needs to capitalize on this with haste. He must focus on increasing the purchasing power of all Americans, and not get caught up in identity politics (like the lowest African-American unemployment on record, since no one cares about those statistics).
- Foreign policy: Trump’s international forays should make a direct impact on the voters, or he needs to make the case and show the results clearly, like the sudden drop in drug overdoses, gas prices, and crime rates. Foreign policy with domestic impact can win the vote.
In addition to domestic policy changes on the ground, the redistricting efforts are paying off some dividends. Texas’ redistricting effort has shifted some seats in the GOP’s direction, and Ohio and North Carolina have also joined the effort. Florida is working on redistricting its seats to yield three to five more Republican seats for the conference. This move will not be the first time that Florida saved the GOP majority, since the four new GOP seats that DeSantis had drawn up in 2022 certainly helped achieve the party’s slim four-seat majority that year.
The conference has a two-seat majority now, but they can flip some marginal districts with Democrat incumbents now. A positive ruling from SCOTUS on Callais v. Louisiana will strike down the forced majority-minority districts, which have given the Democrats nine seats in the House. Imagine if those legislatures could redraw their districts yet again, providing a further cushion for the GOP majority!
Trump and the GOP leadership are wisely planning an unprecedented midterm convention to get out the vote. With a broad coalition also comes the challenge of turning out the low-propensity voters who have only voted for Trump and ignored the rest of the ticket.
Trump and team must prove to the voters the ongoing importance of Congress to accomplish their agenda. This convention should feature registered Democrats and independents explaining how President Trump and his leadership have improved their lives. Angel parents who have lost loved ones to illegals, factory workers who have returned to the assembly line because of Trump’s tariffs, and legal residents from Venezuela and Ukraine who love Trump and America for providing their families here and abroad with hope.
Can Trump and team pivot to a moderate message for the suburban voters who have been tilting Democratic in the last four election cycles? Public order and higher education are key factors. Trump needs to tackle not just affordability for the everyday issues, but a new program that makes higher education affordable, attainable, and attractive for voters again.
The one sticking point he cannot overcome is the so-called “reproductive rights.” Trump can stress that Dobbs v. Jackson restored the issue to the states, and that life is precious. He must overcome any backlash on abortion with resounding success in the economy, education, and public order.
If Trump can harness these wins and coalesce these moves, the GOP can break precedent again and hold the House in 2026.
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