How will the Saudis react to the offer of a lifetime?
It was revealed last week that Donald Trump has made a classic Trumpian offer: he proposed that the Saudis receive civilian nuclear assistance from the U.S., but only if they join the Abraham Accords. From comments made by the president’s spokeswoman, it would appear that the Trump White House has made other offers to Gulf countries that require their joining Bahrain and the UAE in the agreements and normalization with Israel. So how will the Saudis react, especially now that the deal has been made public?
Hatred is generally not a rational emotion. I could imagine some low-level SS officer making a presentation to Hitler showing that if they were nice to the Jews rather than rounding them up and sending them to concentration camps, the Reich would do better and be wealthier. Jews fought for the Fatherland in World War I and were involved in all parts of German business and society. Even if Hitler had been convinced of the utility of the Jews, his complete loathing would have made him continue along the path he chose. The Saudis now sit in the same position: which is better or less evil—peace with Israel and nuclear technology or looking for neutrons somewhere else and keeping the cold state of affairs with the Jewish state? The Wahhabi version of Islam is especially Jew-hating. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) doesn’t seem the kind of leader to take the risk of making peace with Israel. There are today flights from Israel to the UAE and other locales that make use of Saudi airspace. There are stories of meetings and intelligence flowing between Israel and the kingdom. But making peace: he would have to risk his life and make a bold move, something that I believe is beyond him. It’s like a country club where the Jews are allowed in part of the facility but never in the club room. There is a limit to tolerance, and the nuclear bridge might just be one too far.
When Sadat made peace with Israel, he knew that he stood before a windfall: the return of Sinai with its oil reserves, American aid to replace the former Soviet assistance, and access to American weapons systems. Egypt still remains the only place making Abrams tanks outside of Lima, Ohio. Jordan didn’t get any land but did get Israeli water and assistance in keeping the Hashemite dynasty in place. The Abraham Accords were more revolutionary, where countries that refused to recognize Israel and actively supported Hamas and the like made peace openly with Israel. Currently, Israeli carriers cannot fly to Dubai because of the recent attacks by Iran. FlyDubai still runs 10 flights a day from Tel Aviv to Dubai at this time. Israelis can access points all over the world from Dubai or Abu Dhabi and thus fly a wee bit east, even if they eventually want to make their way to Europe or North America. Dubai is not embarrassed by its arrangements with Israel, and unlike Egypt and Jordan, does not spend its days cursing the Jews and demanding the end of their state.
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It would be an act of political and religious courage for Saudi Arabia to openly recognize Israel and exchange ambassadors. That is the reason why I don’t believe it will happen. I would be happy to be wrong, but the Saudis are not lacking in money, energy, or weapons systems. Sure, they want nuclear to keep up with their neighbors, but in my mind, it’s not enough of an incentive for MBS to change the country’s policies and welcome Israeli tourists to Riyadh. We live in an age lacking political courage, with Donald Trump being a rare exception. Politics today involves declarations, statements, threats, committees, investigations, carefully worded communiques, and the like. Look at England refusing to investigate the violation of hundreds of thousands of white British girls primarily at the hands of Pakistani Muslims. Labor and Tory governments have refused to address the matter, terrified of finding the truth and having to deal with the ever-growing Pakistani population at home. We live in an age of cowardice, and I don’t think that MBS would take the risk, especially when others in the kingdom would gladly get rid of him and replace his policies. He fumbled his proposed NEOM city of the future. Enough failures, and one of his 200 cousins might decide that the time has come to replace him.
Donald Trump was very smart in offering the Saudis something that they want in exchange for something that he (and Israel) wants. I just don’t believe that the Saudis are in such a hurry to make peace with Israel and defy their religion and their position for 80 years. As I previously wrote, a Saudi pipeline ran through Israel just after the state came into being. The Israelis sent word that they would not touch or interfere with the pipeline. The Saudis shut it down. A U.S. senator was not allowed into the country during Desert Storm because he had an Israeli stamp in his passport. It’s hard to explain how intense their hatred of Jews and Israel is. Making public peace with Israel is too much for them, and I don’t believe that they will agree. They will quietly drop their push for American nuclear tech and either end their program or look to the Russians or Chinese for the same with no strings attached.
The problem with the Saudis is the same one that Israel (and the U.S.) has experienced for decades: nobody on the other side wants to make peace with them Jews. Lebanon is in a pickle, because it hates Hezbollah and its Iranian control. But it also is no great lover of the Jews (who used to live in the country freely) and doesn’t see enough upside in being friends with the Jews so as to actively fight the Lebanese Shiite terror group. Egypt only made peace because it had kicked out its Russian advisors and thus lost Russian aid. One book described Anwar Sadat trying to get Jimmy Carter to come in to help Egypt as “the tail wagging the dog” due to his great need and urgency to get economic aid and military assistance. Jordan made peace because it was already at peace with Israel. The current king’s grandfather was murdered by Palestinians because he thought about making peace with Israel. Syria feels it has nothing to gain; ditto for Yemen, Kuwait, etc. They can’t be bribed by the possibility of Israeli tech or investment opportunities in Tel Aviv. Hatred is a powerful emotion, and they can’t let it go. Their countries, whether rich Gulf ones or poor Arab ones, are failures in comparison to the West. They produce nothing but oil and terror. They have no tech and no academic basis for being serious players in AI or other up-and-coming fields. They have felt insecurity for decades, and it is this feeling that has been one of the major drivers for Islamic terror. We can’t compete with the West; let’s just destroy it.
I hope that I am wrong. I hope that MBS will host Israeli negotiators at one of his palaces and that there will be formal peace between the countries. Trump is brilliant in his tying nuclear help to relations with Israel. Will the Saudis bite? I still think that their hatred and pride will trump a better future. The Germans gave up on the Jews and went down the tubes. I expect that the Saudis will choose self-destruction over having to shake a Jew’s hand. And this is even with Jared Kushner supposedly being a friend of MBS. There are Jews, and then there are Israelis. Saudis: hard pass.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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