The events in Iran are extraordinary, as is the courage of the Iranian people.
Oftentimes in life, we know that an event was important well after the fact. Ayatollah Komeini went down the stairs of his Air France flight and destroyed Iran. Ninoy Aquino was murdered after he landed back in the Philippines and had no chance to rule. That which we are witnessing in Iran is nothing short of extraordinary. There have been protests in the past, but what we see in broken glimpses is bravery on a scale rarely seen today. Government forces are shooting mostly unarmed protesters, and the latter keep coming. When you have nothing to lose, you also have nowhere else to go.
The example of blindfolded people, each one touching a different part of an elephant and being unable to say what they are touching, seems to apply here. We see grainy videos when Starlink is working. “Hundreds of thousands in Tehran!” “Tabriz is on fire!” “The local commander in Mashhad has been killed.” And pictures of fires, and protesters as far as the eye can see. Just as we can’t wrap our minds around what exactly is going on in Iran, apparently the mullahs and other leaders are also trying to figure out what the real score is. Sure, the IRGC and army have all of the tanks and planes, but the people have the numbers, and even in spite of arrests (badly wounded people being pulled out of hospitals…), murders on the streets, and threats, they keep coming night after night. The people don't seem afraid, and that means doom for the theocracy. Every person of good spirit is rooting for the Iranian people. Many, including Israeli intelligence and the White House, are beginning to believe that they might actually win.
One of the reports that bounced around the internet was the burning of 25 mosques in Tehran. People mistakenly look at Middle East countries as being “Muslim countries”. Shia Islam is one of many pieces of the Iranian puzzle. But there are many others, and they have had it with the strictures being demanded from on high: from dress to behavior to fidelity to a government that they hate. There was a boy in the Soviet school system who was told that Stalin was his father and Russia was his mother. When asked what he wants to be when he grows up, he said, “An orphan.” Many Iranians want nothing to do with forced hijabs and morality police. Yes, those pictures from the 1970s are real—happy and handsome Iranians enjoying life that seemed identical to life in Europe. Israel and the US had great relationships with the Shah, and the demise of his rule was the end of Iran as a positive force in the world. Everybody realizes that if the theocracy falls, Hamas, Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq and others will be in serious trouble. Even the anti-Western leadership in Qatar cannot replace Iran for money or zeal of killing others. Israeli officials have often been to Qatar for discussions relating to Gaza; no Israeli has been to Iran in five decades, though the Mossad and Israeli Air Force have come in without showing a passport.
The response of the Iranian people is not surprising in light of the hope that they see around them. They finally have a friend in the White House and not a president who gives the mullahs billions in cash and sanctions relief. They see Lebanon trying to get rid of Hezbollah and return to something of its previous life as the Switzerland of the Middle East. They saw Israel attack at will in the hollowed-out air defenses of the country, and of course Donald Trump put in the slam dunk with the B-2 bombing. They can receive the internet and see how life is outside of their country. I remember that Komeini refused to allow Coca-Cola into Iran, because he said that there was a definite culture associated with such products. The younger Iranians, who seem to be at the forefront of what little we can see of the protests, want that culture. They want to be part of the world and are tired of the Shiite minority controlling and destroying their lives. Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and other countries in the region were not Muslim countries at all, until Muslims came and took over. Coptic Christians in Egypt and Maronite Catholics were there before there were Muslim governments. Hezbollah has taken over Lebanon and destroyed its finances and future. Hezbollah will not disarm, as it will then become irrelevant. It has been reported that Iran has given the Lebanese terror group a billion dollars in the past six months. Another billion not spent on the Iranian people. The Lebanese don’t have to be best buddies with Israel, but they’d like to be at peace, so as to develop their country and live their lives without bombings and violence.
The pro-Hamas set in the West and their friends in the media don’t say much about Iran. They are rooting for the mullahs. For reasons that would require a 48-hour couch session with Sigmund Freud, the left is enamored with hardcore Islam. Even though Iran executes more homosexuals than any other country, the people who are into intersectionality and 483 genders, love the theocracy. They love Hamas and Hezbollah and for some reason have no problem with a guy having three wives and beating them as required. All of their supposed liberal ideas and principles melt in the face of Islamic orthodoxy.
I wrote previously that I did not know if the aggressive presence of the Shah’s son was a good thing or not. No doubt that there are many people who remember the brutal secret police, SAVAK, that his father ran. Many hold that a strike in the oil sector was the last straw that forced the Shah to flee. I was wrong in my thinking, and the Shah’s son is critical to what’s going on right now. If a person says that he has to get rid of the mullahs and their brutal theocracy, and then you ask, okay and you replace it with what? A vacuum? A vague idea of elections, democracy, blah blah? No, he is the focal point of the people. We want the dictator gone and we want the crown prince to replace him. People need the younger Pahlavi as a focus of their brave efforts. You can’t fight for your life for some theoretical or ephemeral idea. One needs something solid, and the Shah’s son is that solid being—and they are calling his name, saying that he is coming, holding up his picture. I was wrong to think that the Shah’s son might turn people off of revolution because of the brutality associated with his father’s rule. The people need hope, and they see it in the younger Pahlavi, and they see it in Donald Trump.
The president has been very clear about his willingness to come in to the fight Iran. Apparently he needs two things: enough protesters killed by the government and enough fight in the protesters to suggest that they might just win. We apparently are reaching those two milestones, though all communication in and out of Iran is incomplete and unclear. Are 2,000 protesters dead? Are nearly 2 million people protesting in all 31 Iranian provinces? Even if the terms are met, what exactly would the US do? Wipe out Iranian oil production—that would be a bad start for the new government. Attack government and IRGC buildings? Blow up the Basij guys on the motorbikes? Look for more late night pizza orders from Dominoes near the Pentagon. Donald Trump is a man of his word.
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