Yemen and Iran remain threats to Israel and beyond. Can they be neutralized?
Friday afternoon we heard the sound of a loud explosion. I hate to say that it brought back some bad memories, but it was not clear what the source of the noise was. In short order it was reported that the sound was that of an interceptor missile being shot towards yet one more Houthi missile fired towards Israel. Saturday morning, around 6:15, I was soundly asleep at synagogue. But not for long. The siren just on the other side of the window went off and I fell out of my seat. The routine has become standard: there is the crazy wailing of sirens. People are supposed to find cover. Then there is quiet. Finally, there is the sound of the anti-missile missiles being fired at the projectile or its debris. My synagogue is all windows but nobody moved. One is grateful that the Houthi missiles have not caused more damage and casualties, but they have also created a sense of boredom. Who can be bothered to find a slab of concrete to hide under?
As I wrote these words, my son called me. He works in an office near the airport. Sunday morning, the sirens sounded. He told a coworker that they should head to the bomb shelter in a school across the street. As they were moving, a projectile landed. He said that he heard a massive boom and his phone fell out of his hand. A Houthi missile directed towards Ben Gurion Airport fell in an empty field near Terminal 3, the major passenger terminal at the airport. A few people were injured. Apparently, the attempts to knock the missile out failed. Israel has at its disposal THAAD, Arrow 3, Iron Dome and other systems for missile interception.
The owner of the Telegram channel “Abu Ali Express” noted that Israel has of late successfully swatted away 26 out of 27 Houthi missiles. If this was a baseball team, such a record would be something for the record books. The problem is, to paraphrase the 1980's bumper sticker, “One Houthi missile can ruin your whole day.” There is no perfect defense system, and it is a wondrous act of God that while the Houthis got their missile where they wanted it, it was off by a few hundred meters and caused six injuries instead of an October 7th reprise. The question is how does one respond.
Israel’s failed deterrence with Hamas and Hezbollah was based on responding to actual outcomes and not potential outcomes. When Iron Dome would knock down dozens of Hamas missiles and nobody was injured, Israel would declare the fighting over. If they had a model showing that without the anti-missile system, 250 people would have been killed, then maybe they would have been more aggressive before the 2023 pogrom and prevented it from ever happening. This insouciance is not new. I remember over 20 years ago when Shimon Peres belittled the Kassem rocket threat from Gaza: “Kassemim, shmassemim. We’ve faced worse challenges.” Should Israel respond to a 25 meter deep ditch in a farm or as if the missile from Yemen hit the Steimatzky bookstore in the middle of D concourse of Terminal 3?
While the U.S. Navy is actively whacking the Houthis, the latter keep firing missiles at Israel, one or two per day. I have no doubt that the planes of the Vinson and Truman along with B-2 bombers from Diego Garcia have done enormous damage to Houthi leadership, weapons stores, and ports; still, the fact remains that they can still fire missiles. Oftentimes, the effort needed to deal with a problem from 90% to 100% is more than that required to get from 0 to 90%. If an EMP or small nuclear bomb was ever in order, Yemen is the address, though I know that it will NOT happen. It is a country that China and Russia will not go to bat for if it is turned a glowing green. The question is whether conventional weapons dropped from U.S. planes are enough to put the Houthis out of business. If so, then what is the timeline when ships can pass safely into and out of the Red Sea? If not, what is Plan B? Again, I have no doubt that the U.S. is causing real pain to the Houthis. But at the end of the day, they continue to fire missiles, however indiscriminately. If that missile had hit Terminal 3 filled with travelers, Yemen would cease to exist. Do we always have to wait for disaster to do the right thing we should have done long before?
And when speaking of the Houthis, one always comes to Iran. They supply their Yemenite friends with their weapons. Pete Hegseth noted as much and the Iranians got so uppity in their anger that they pushed off further nuclear talks. The Iranians are once again playing the Americans for a lousy nuclear deal that will tie Israel’s hand and give them the bomb. Steve Witkoff should be parking cars at Trump Tower and not leading the talks on such a sensitive matter. The talks should be very simple: turn over your nuclear material and let us destroy your infrastructure or we’ll blow the whole thing up. No, with Witkoff, they are talking about an Obama-style agreement that will allow Iran to get the bomb. Iran should be given an ultimatum, not a technical road for enrichment.
One question for which I am not privy to the answer is whether Israel alone can stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. There is no question that the U.S. has been providing a lot of weaponry of late, but what if the targets are so deep and/or protected, that Israel cannot blast them into the past tense? When Israel killed Hasan Nassrallah and many of his lieutenants, they dropped 80 bombs on the structure standing over his bunker. It was said that his body was found intact and those who were killed died by asphyxiation. Eighty bombs and the bunker did not crumble? So can Israel hit a deep target embedded in a mountain and be certain that it is toast? I don’t know. I would prefer that the U.S. have a ringside seat for the end of the mullahs’ nuclear dreams, but what if Israel can’t do it alone? There is no question that Israeli planes would need refueling for action over Iran, but there is no way to add bombs beyond what a plane takes with it on takeoff. What if they simply don’t have enough conventional weaponry—even with bunker busters—to get the job fully done? As we see in Yemen, even with B-2’s using very heavy bombs (as reported by those on the ground), the Houthis still have mobile launchers and ballistic missiles to shoot at Israeli and American forces. The Truman lost a $60 million F-18 while performing very aggressive maneuvers to avoid Houthi fire. If you want to put the Houthi problem to bed, an air campaign may not be enough. Does the U.S. want to support the Yemenite government forces attacking the Houthis? I don’t get invited to cabinet meetings, so I don’t know the answer to that one.
As in Vietnam and Afghanistan, we can’t put present enemies away for the count. What then is the solution?
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