Modern warfare has little to do with victory and conquest. Rather, it is an exercise in how to fight and lose according to international expectations.
The ultimate Hollywood expression of a ridiculous fight is the Monty Python sword battle between King Arthur and the Black Knight. When the latter has lost both of his arms and both of his legs, he proudly declares, “Alright, we’ll call it a draw.” What is victory, and not a mere draw, for Israel in Gaza? Israel started the war with a claim that it would crush Hamas and that Hamas would not have any role in a future Gaza. Are those goals still the ones driving the war?
The simple answer as to what victory should look like would be a return of all hostages in the short run and no more threat to Israelis from the Gaza Strip in the long run. Just as the peace treaties between Israel and Egypt and Jordan ostensibly took those countries out of the mortal threat category, some arrangement short of a formal peace treaty that allows Israelis to plant up to the Gaza border fence and not fear rockets or terror infiltration would be the best possible outcome. The problem is that quiet on the outside does not necessarily mean quiet on the inside. Tzipi Livni was Israel’s foreign minister when UN Resolution 1701 passed in 2006. It was the basis for the end of the Second Lebanon War. For years, Livni crowed that her diplomatic magic had led to a quiet northern front. While she was technically correct that there was little violence, it was clear to all that Hezbollah was arming up and preparing for a much larger conflict. Routine estimates put their rocket and missile inventory at over 100,000. What the IDF found during its fighting in Lebanon showed that the calm on the outside clearly did not reflect the preparations for violence on the inside. Tens of thousands of rockets, mortars, missiles and the like were recovered. The haul was so large that the IDF set up a unit to use all of the weaponry in a future conflict. Can Gaza present no danger and also not rearm for October 7th, Part2?
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So is there any way to neutralize Gaza completely? I don’t know. There is no question that the Palestinian hatred remains. Any rebuilding effort will include a side dish of tunnel building and weapons procurement/production. So is Israel winning or losing in Gaza? It depends how you define the terms. Winning in the past meant the total defeat of the enemy. Since World War 2, Western armies have not tasted winning, only stalemates and outright losses. The one bright spot was Desert Storm and that was over 30 years ago.
If you define winning as the killing of thousands of terrorists, including many who were involved in planning and executing the October 7th attack, then Israel is winning. If you define winning as killing the top Hamas leaders inside and outside of the Strip, then Israel is winning. If you define winning as the destruction of massive amounts of terror infrastructure and weapons, then Israel is winning. If you define winning as Israel demolishing much of Gaza’s infrastructure, including thousands of buildings and dozens of terror mosques and hospitals, then Israel is winning. But if you define winning as pacifying Gaza for the next 80 years, then Israel right now is not winning.
Israel’s brave soldiers have fought valiantly in difficult urban terrain. Outstanding intelligence and smooth synchronization between all branches of the IDF have allowed for incredible progress in Gaza. But we live in an age where Western armies are no longer fighting to win; instead, they are fighting so as not to be accused of war crimes. Israel, either by choice or by threat of prosecution, has done a lot of things in Gaza that reduce civilian casualties and make total victory less likely:
– Drop dud bombs on buildings (knock knock) to get people out.
– Make phone calls or send SMS messages to get people out.
– Use drones with loudspeakers or drop leaflets to get people out.
– Provide food and medicines to the people who want to kill you.
– Provide water and electricity to the people who want to kill you.
– Not demand that the Red Cross do its job and visit the hostages.
– Not demand from Hamas accurate names/condition information for all hostages.
If Israel’s goal is either to wipe out Hamas (if that is even possible) or make the Gaza Strip a non-threatening area, then all of the activities above work against such goals. When Israel warns people to move out of a future firefight zone, the terrorists move with them. By providing food, Israel is giving Hamas further control over the Gazan population. They steal much of the aid and thus the people must come to them in order to live. Giving water and electricity is crazy—can someone find any example of belligerent A giving needed material aid to belligerent B for the duration of a conflict? Israel has never pressed Hamas to own up to its kidnapping of 250 people. Where is the Red Cross? Where is the demand for information on the hostages in exchange for food? Even now, Israel is negotiating for the release of 33 people, and they don’t know which of them are alive or not. There are sixty more and nobody talks about them at all.
Victory in war generally requires ruthless violence until the other side capitulates. Making a “nice” war with warnings to move and UberEats food deliveries is the surefire way to prolong the fighting and not to win. The Palestinians have never lost so badly that they have given up their dream of destroying Israel. They lose a wee bit and then they come back and attack (civilians) again. Israel has the opportunity to crush Hamas and pacify Gaza. It may not have the will or the approach that will allow either goal to be met.
There was a time when warriors knew how to make war—and win. Germany and Japan were bombed and attacked into submission. After they unconditionally surrendered, then assistance started to flow into their broken counties. MacArthur demanded the massive food stores set aside for troops training to invade Japan be given to the starving Japanese population. Israel on the one hand is fighting ruthlessly: bombing, destroying, wiping out and killing. On the other hand, it is telling people to get out of harm’s way, feeding them, and giving them electricity and water. The Gazans will not make peace with you because they like you; if they make peace, it will be because they are terrified of you. Playing nice with them may help with future litigation at the Hague. It will not help turn Gaza into a non-threatening area for Israeli civilians.
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