Under threat from Donald Trump to put the Gaza War in the rearview mirror, Israel is not aiming for a complete victory over Hamas.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) is auditioning. For the first time in its history, it appears to be really going after Islamic terrorists in Jenin. Whereas Israel fought very hard in Jenin since the start of the Gaza War, the PA has taken over and has infuriated the locals by actually killing and arresting Hamas and primarily Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists. The PA, under Mahmud Abbas, is auditioning for the role of running Gaza. Reviews have not come in yet, but they are a longshot to get the job..
Donald Trump’s stunning victory last month has had reverberations throughout the world. Vladimir Putin talks about finishing the war in Ukraine—but only via negotiations run by Trump. NATO countries start to talk about fulfilling their financial obligations to the organization. Justin Trudeau made a beeline to Maro-Lago to head off heavy tariffs; the president of Mexico did the same by phone. Even the outgoing president of South Korea pulled out his golf clubs so as not to be humiliated by the Trumpinator.
Israel and Hamas are also feeling the heat of Donald Trump’s public statements that the hostages better be home before the 20th of January. He has made it clear that he wants the wars Israel is fighting finished when he takes over. Israel is in intense negotiations with Hamas via midwives Egypt, Qatar, and the US. Israel, after having flattened most of the Gaza Strip and having cut Hamas off from its source of weapons and money, should simply be dictating terms, as all victorious countries have done in the past. But Israel is not dictating, because it has kept Hamas alive during the past 14 months. Many if not most supply trucks that enter the Strip are mauled by Hamas terrorists, with the goods going straight to Hamas warehouses. If people want to eat and want to live, they need to pay Hamas. So while the IDF has pulverized Rafah and Jabaliya and has cut out huge swaths of Palestinian-free areas, Israel is not going for the kill on Hamas. Sure, it wiped out much of its leadership, even in Tehran. But Israel wants a weaker Hamas, but does not fight to get rid of it completely. Why?
The basic problem that Israel has faced since the ill-fated Oslo Accords is that everybody hates Jews. Let’s think about the passage between Egypt and Gaza, namely the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel has paved it and has alternatively made noises that it will never give it back or that it will turn it over to somebody. So who could that somebody be? Enter the Jenin audition of the PA: they want to run Gaza and for the first time are showing that they hate Palestinian terrorists more than they hate Israeli Jews. Unfortunately, nobody believes that they would keep up this posture beyond Jenin. So put the PA in charge of the crossings into Egypt. Arms and money flow in, as people flow in both directions. In ten years, Israelis would again be facing an armed camp across from the fertile fields of southern Israel. But if not the PA, who? The UN? Their UNIFIL forces all but aided Hezbollah in its preparations for an October 7th type attack on Israel’s north. The Europeans? The same ones who have taken in millions of pro-Hamas immigrants, and some of whom have already recognized “Palestine”, wherever that might be. So, Israel ultimately has the unenviable choice of either putting someone in charge of Gaza who will help the terrorists come back to life or run the place itself—something that the world does not want and is not very popular long-term within Israeli society.
So, yes, of course, Israel wants to win. But it apparently has concluded that there is no viable alternative to Hamas. Can you turn it into a sort of attenuated virus, one that is still alive but is no longer dangerous? That sounds like a stretch. The last communique to come out of the negotiations was that some government of “technocrats” would run the place after the war. You can put all of the technocrats in Gaza into a VW Beetle and have room left for a driver and his wife. This pseudo-technocratic government is apparently the fig leaf that Hamas and Israel have agreed upon so that Israel can say that Hamas is not in charge after hundreds of soldiers have been killed in Gaza. For Hamas, anyone in charge will be under its control, just as UNRWA existed to help Hamas run the Strip and prepare for the devastating blow against Israel. It’s like going to the store next to your gate right before boarding and realizing that all of the sandwiches have gone bad, and your job is to choose the sandwich which seems to stink the least and will probably not cause you significant stomach problems. The PA will help Hamas. The UN and the Europeans will help Hamas. So, Israel apparently has chosen Hamas Lite with the idea that somehow it can control the flow of weapons and the building of new tunnels. Just a few days ago, Israel blew up a 7.5 km tunnel in Gaza—over a year after entering the Strip.
Israel, under pressure from the supportive incoming administration, needs to tie up loose ends in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. In Gaza, there are not many good choices as to what to do the day after: stay and risk more lives, allow in the pro-Hamas PA or UN or EU or buy into Hamas continuing its rule? Israel made massive mistakes in thinking that its smart wall, cameras and listening capabilities would pick up any significant Hamas attack plans. They were caught completely off-guard, and the thousands of Hamas terrorists had hours to torture, rape and murder Israeli citizens and soldiers, before spiriting 250 hostages back to Gaza. Can Israel neuter Gaza so that it will never be a threat again? The way Israel is negotiating with Hamas as equals, it apparently figures that it does not believe in a quiet future for the Gaza Strip.
In normal times of the past, Israel would hold onto Gaza, turning part of it into military installations and the rest of it into new towns. There is nothing that smells of victory more than the bad guys losing territory. The good news from Lebanon is that Israel is ignoring the ceasefire and taking care of business. Maybe, Israel will promise to leave and simply stay in its commanding positions that it currently holds. As they used to say: stay tuned.
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